The Health Benefits of Fresh Dog Food: A Growing Market

Introduction

Yahoo finance recently published an article on financial projections for the global fresh dog food market which you can read here. The reasons for this increase from a $22 billion valuation in 2023 to $35 billion in 2032 are primarily due to increased awareness among consumers of the health benefits of fresh dog foods and the anthropomorphizing of dogs (i.e. assigning them human attributes).

The article continues discussing how the average spend per dog on fresh food has increased to $200 annually. I’m certain whoever wrote this article is correct in how they compiled this data since it was done by an analytics company but that’s not the statistic they think it is. Two hundred dollars a year is nothing in the context of these fresh food subscriptions which can cost in the $400-600/month range for my dog.

Puppies accounted for approximately 60% of the fresh food dog subscription accounts. The article discusses some of the relevant considerations around early nutrition and potential reasons for the high percentage of puppies making up the fresh dog food market. I think the reason for the high percentage of puppies is simple: there’s a new generation of dog owners who both have the financial resources, are targeted by advertising, and are not having children so spending more on dog food is feasible for them.

What to look for moving forward

The number of subscription service options along with improved logistics and scales of economy that accompany the growth of the market will initially have downward pressure on prices. I think like any other fragmented industry, private equity or maybe even a public company will look to consolidated some of these dog food subscription companies to replace market share they are losing as consumers move towards non kibble options. While there are certainly some brands like Darwins that are a very unique product, many of the fresh food subscriptions are similar. The Farmer’s Dog, The Farmer’s Table, Ollie’s, etc. are all very similar nutritionally, delivery system is the same and dogs probably view these options as interchangeable so it’s feasible that some combination of these companies get rolled up to consolidate market share.

Pet stores traditionally don’t carry these dog food subscription products. They have a couple of fresh options on hand but not the big names in the subscription game. I believe to reach older consumers (baby boomers and gen x), these companies will start placing their products in physical stores like Petco and Petsmart. That is a market of people who, similar to millenials and gen z, no longer have children in the home and have gotten pets that they don’t mind spending extra on but they may not be online as much and so haven’t been marketed to as heavily.

Kibble producers will have to fight hard for market share over the next decade or two. The products they sell smell bad. Even though veterinarians are staunch advocates of big box kibble brands stating that they are nutritionally balanced and to avoid raw or fresh options because they lead to cancer (yes, that is what I was told when I asked my vet), we as consumers intuitively know that a combination of animal byproducts and various grain fillers that make up kibble isn’t optimal – and the science is catching up to that sentiment.

Conclusion

Fresh dog food is out of the price range of many consumers but that may not last long as the market grows and becomes more efficient. Many subscription services offer steep discounts on a trial period for their dog foods with the hope that even if you think you can’t afford it, once you try it, you’ll make space in your budget after seeing how happy your dog is with the new food option. Societal pressures are going to push you into the position of asking the question how much do you care about your pet and are they worth a few hundred extra dollars to you.